Aggregate logistics costs now sit above the level that has historically preceded supply-driven inflation. Inventory growth is slowing, yet the bill for holding and moving it keeps climbing.
Key Takeaways
Peak season is supposed to be when volume drives cost. This year the cost arrived first. Inventory is growing more slowly than it was, yet the price of storing it, moving it and financing it has climbed to levels that a group of university researchers say have historically fed broader inflation. Shippers heading into the busiest weeks of the year are not facing a volume problem. They are facing a price problem.
The July Logistics Managers' Index, released September 2, came in at 68.9. That is down from 71.1 in June, but the report notes it is higher than any reading made at any point from 2023 to 2025. Inventory costs rose to 77.0, warehousing prices to 75.5, transportation prices to 86.9 and transportation utilization to 65.0. On the index's scale, 50 marks the line between expansion and contraction, so every one of those cost measures is well into expansion territory.
The more telling figure is the aggregate. According to SupplyChainBrain's coverage of the report, aggregate logistics costs averaged 241.9 from March through August, which the authors call a statistically significant step up. The index combines inventory costs, warehousing prices and transportation costs on a 0 to 300 scale, and readings above 240 have historically coincided with supply-driven inflation. The report places the takeoff after the start of the conflict between the United States and Iran in March, a reminder that this is a cost shock layered on top of tariffs rather than a normal seasonal swing.
July's 68.9 is higher than any readings made at any point from 2023–2025. Logistics Managers' Index, July 2026 report
What makes the picture unusual is that volume is not the cause. The same report shows inventory levels slowing from 66.0 to 55.0 even as inventory costs kept expanding, which the authors attribute to tariffs and the war. Warehousing capacity slipped to 46.3, below the breakeven mark, while transportation capacity sat at 28.4, deep in contraction territory. Space and trucks are both scarce, and scarcity is what is setting the price.
That squeeze arrives just as demand expectations turn upward. A Logistics Management reader survey of 100 freight, logistics and supply chain stakeholders found 52% expect a more active peak season, up from 27% in 2025, while only 19% expect less activity, down from 42%. Some 44% said peak season has a very significant effect on day-to-day operations. Labor shortages, delivery delays, capacity constraints and freight and fuel costs topped the list of operational challenges, and the survey ties early activity to cargo front-loaded ahead of the July 24 expiration of temporary 10% Section 122 tariffs.
Put those findings side by side and the risk is plain. Pulled-forward stock is already sitting in a storage network with little slack, more freight is expected on top of it, and every additional pallet is priced at a premium. Companies that treat peak as a capacity exercise will miss that the real exposure is financial: carrying cost, not shelf space, is where the margin goes.
The levers that remain are not about buying more space at current rates. They are about using inventory more deliberately, sharing visibility with the partners who hold it, and lifting the productivity of the assets already on the road. The playbook below reflects what the index data and survey responses point toward.
Costs that cross a historic threshold rarely retreat on their own. The shippers who come through peak in good shape will be the ones who treated the cost data as an early warning, moved before the surge rather than during it, and made visibility a shared asset across every partner that touches their inventory.
Report
With aggregate logistics costs above 240, outsourced procurement and logistics spend deserves a fresh look. GEP explains how AI is changing the economics of managed services and what can now be delegated at what cost.
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Guide
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