Duties paid by midsize U.S. importers are still more than double their late 2024 level, Canada has just retaliated, and customs data errors can now cost a company its import privileges. Waiting for policy clarity is a decision too, and it is not a cheap one.
Key Takeaways
Trade policy has been unsettled for so long that many midsize companies have adopted a simple response: wait. Wait for the next announcement, wait for a court ruling, wait for a deal that makes the sourcing map easier to redraw. The data suggests that patience is not free. A Supply Chain Dive report on new JPMorganChase Institute research found that customs duty payments by midsize firms were still more than twice their October 2024 baseline in June, and the researchers suggested that some of these firms could be delaying strategic supply chain decisions until policy becomes clearer.
The JPMorganChase Institute tracks duties paid by midsize firms, defined as those with annual revenue between $10 million and $1 billion or between 50 and 499 employees, as an index set to 100 in October 2024. It peaked at 314 in October 2025, eased to 201 in May 2026 and then rose again to 222 in June, according to the same Supply Chain Dive coverage. Monthly federal tariff revenue followed a similar path, from $34 billion at the peak to $23.7 billion in June.
The burden is uneven. Apparel manufacturers carry the heaviest load, with duties averaging 5.2% of costs between April 2025 and March 2026, up from 3.3% a year earlier. The finding that matters most for planners is the behavioral one: international payments by midsize firms grew only 6 to 12 percentage points slower than domestic payments, which points to hesitation rather than a wholesale move to new suppliers. Firms are absorbing the cost and holding their positions while they wait to see what happens.
The waiting game got harder on September 8. After U.S.-Canada trade negotiations collapsed in August, Canada put dollar-for-dollar tariffs into effect on about C$27.6 billion of U.S. goods, at rates from 15% to 50%, according to FreightWaves. Steel, aluminum, jackets and T-shirts face the 50% rate, while forklifts and industrial molds face 15%. The measures cover roughly 8% of Canadian imports, and the U.S. Trade Representative has said Washington could consider further countermeasures.
For freight, the exposure runs through supplier networks rather than single shipments. FreightWaves noted that aerospace manufacturer Bombardier alone relies on about 2,800 U.S. suppliers across 47 states, and that roughly 40% of Canadian Federation of Independent Business members who export goods face 50% U.S. tariffs. A component that crosses the border several times before final assembly can be taxed on each crossing.
Duties are only one part of the compliance load. On September 18, U.S. Customs and Border Protection began enforcing accuracy requirements for importer of record data, and it can now immediately void an importer number if the information on file is inaccurate or incomplete. Trucking Dive reported that CBP is reviewing details such as phone numbers, email addresses and physical addresses, and that the responsibility applies even when a customs broker submits the data on the importer's behalf. The push follows an executive order issued June 3, and importers are expected to be in good standing within 180 days of it. Losing an importer number means goods cannot enter the country until standing is restored.
Meanwhile the cost of moving freight is climbing underneath all of this. The Cass Information Systems September roundup put the Truckload Linehaul Index up 11.3% year over year in August, the largest increase since June 2022, with total truckload expenditures including fuel up 18.7% as diesel rose 46%. Tariffs, compliance risk and fuel are landing on the same landed-cost line at the same time.
Holding still feels safe, but the numbers show a bill that keeps arriving whether or not a decision is made. Leaders getting ahead of it are taking these steps:
Policy uncertainty is real, but it is also the environment companies have to plan inside, not a temporary condition to outlast. The midsize firms that come out ahead will be the ones that put a price on waiting and decide accordingly, rather than the ones that hoped for a clean answer.
Guide
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